The second round of nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran has produced no concrete movement, and President Trump is not hiding his impatience. "No more Mr. Nice Guy," Trump posted Sunday morning, a statement that arrived alongside news of the U.S. Navy seizing an Iranian cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman and makes the administration's negotiating posture — if it can be called that — clear enough.
The talks, led on the American side by Vice President JD Vance, have run into the same obstacles that have complicated every attempt at a nuclear agreement with Tehran for the past two decades: mutual distrust, incompatible red lines, and the particular difficulty of negotiating with a government that is simultaneously signaling flexibility at the table and defiance in the strait. Iran wants the blockade lifted before it will engage seriously. The United States wants nuclear concessions before it will lift the blockade. Neither side shows signs of blinking.
Diplomats with experience on the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action — the Obama-era deal that the first Trump administration withdrew from in 2018 — have been notably pessimistic. The complexity of a new agreement, they say, is orders of magnitude greater than what was negotiated a decade ago, because the mistrust is deeper, Iran's nuclear program is more advanced, and both sides have spent years watching agreements dissolve.
The economic pressure on Iran is real and mounting. The blockade has disrupted oil exports, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has imposed costs on Iranian-linked shipping. Whether that pressure produces concessions or entrenchment is the central question of the next several weeks.
The Islamabad Talks that preceded this round ended without agreement. This round, so far, looks similar. A third round has not been scheduled.